Dealing with unknowns

I am not sure what we are getting into. Let's not risk it!

We've all heard variations of this countless times. Yet, I'd think management pundits - nay practitioners, would've figured the best way to deal with the fear of the unknown. Yet, I find that this fear plagues management echelons in both the public and the private sector - in ever increasing proportions. 

Here is an example of how decisions with unknowns are taken routinely, based on "playing it safe".

Scenario #1: Data Confidentiality

A asks for some data that B has. B is not sure whether there are any provisions governing sharing of this data. Instead of finding out whether there are, he simply declines - quoting the contract governing the data. A, not knowing better, returns empty handed.

What happened later: 

A requests for a copy of the contract in question. Finds that the contract has not only expired 3 years ago, but never had any provisions of confidentiality at any time. When A shows this to B, he reacts defensively. "Well I never read the contract, but C told me that we had a contract. How can I be sure that I won't be sued for this? Who gave you the copy of the contract anyway?" 

Instead of saying "I don't know for sure, so let me play safe", B could've said "I don't know for sure; let me find out - and then I'll know whether I am doing the right thing".

Scenario #2: Decision on a new proposal

The board of company X is meeting. One of their executives E has presented to them a novel idea that needs an significant investment. One of the board member reacts "What about security? Have you considered that?". E explains to them how security is addressed in the new proposal. "But what about the market reaction? How will the competitors react? They are not going to sit tight you know?". E agrees that as with any new proposal, there are some unknowns. However, the best projections they have, show that success is the most likely outcome. After a few more interactions like this, it becomes clear. The board member does not have enough knowledge of the market - and would decide based on his fear of the unknown. 

While it may be argued that E may have done a bad job of explaining / selling the idea; it is also clear that when facing the unknown, it is important to seek more information; specific information that puts the fear in perspective. 

It is quite like hesitating to enter a dark room. Rather than opt-out, it is much simpler to seek the switch to the light bulb and turn it on. The light thrown gives a name to the fear. It clarifies that you need not fear unknown ghosts but the object in the way that you might trip on. Similarly, seeking information and giving a name to the fear, throws light into the darkness - and reduces the tendency to adopt "default decisions". 

However, I see more and more decision makers taking the easy way out. This, I believe is influenced - apart from other factors - both by the work culture osmosis that I wrote about earlier; as well as the declining inherent knowledge levels and compensating lack of application of adequate logic - also written about in re-engineered by google.

Sadly, the consulting industry, who are supposed to help managers out in such circumstances are themselves impacted by these factors - further contributing to this scenario. 

I wonder whether there is a simple fix to this malady. Of course, I could, in all my ignorance, do the typical Indian thing and say: "I don't know, but hey, I am sure things will surely turn around" (hope, the big remedy) or even "C'mon, things are not as bad as you say" (deny the unknown!).